FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

391.92 – 406.93

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 757.6 ±8.7

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 83.25Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 168.83Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 139.84Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.6 ±8.7

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 112.4Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 162.06Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 132.47Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1807, 8513, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

391.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1807, 8513, 9094

Auto

93.5 24%

Teleop

219.3 57%

Endgame

74.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 341, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3637, 341, 1676

Auto

89.8 23%

Teleop

211.1 54%

Endgame

93.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score391.9pts

Blue projected score406.9pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15
Score range: 342–457
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 746 vs event baseline 276.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

757.6Season APEX741.6

93.5Auto89.8

219.3Teleop211.1

74Endgame93.3

82Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	124
teleop	183	161
endgame	116	58
foul	0	5
total	398	348

Result

Final score

398 – 348

Prediction missed · off by 32.5 pts

Match videos

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