FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.87 – 413.4

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

360 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.1 ±8.7

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 147.8Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 131.31Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 136.76Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 741.6 ±8.7

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 163.66Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 114.99Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 134.75Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 272, 11, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 11, 1640

Auto

82.8 20%

Teleop

221.5 55%

Endgame

100.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 3637, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 341, 3637, 1676

Auto

90.3 23%

Teleop

212.6 53%

Endgame

96.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score415.9pts

Blue projected score413.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.5
Score range: 363–466
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 733 vs event baseline 275.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.1Season APEX741.6

82.8Auto90.3

221.5Teleop212.6

100.6Endgame96.3

67Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	87
teleop	164	204
endgame	118	77
foul	5	5
total	360	373

Result

Final score

360 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Match videos

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