Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
625.47 – 325.03
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
422 – 276
Prediction correct · off by 126.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 836.1 ±8.7
Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 284.4Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 107.83Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 233.24Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630.3 ±9.3
Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 86.34Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 170.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 67.77Rank 23Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 316, 2607, 2539
83
/ 100 compatProjected
625.5 pts
~2.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 316, 2607, 2539
Auto
124.7 20%
Teleop
339.6 55%
Endgame
154.2 25%
Strengths
- · 316 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1807, 8513, 75
74
/ 100 compatProjected
325 pts
~0.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1807, 8513, 75
Auto
88.8 28%
Teleop
168.9 53%
Endgame
62.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 35%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.66
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score625.5pts
Blue projected score325pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample294alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%
Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 300.4
- Score range
- 275–675
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
836.1Season APEX630.3
124.7Auto88.8
339.6Teleop168.9
154.2Endgame62.8
14Consistency90
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 162 | 64 |
| teleop | 198 | 165 |
| endgame | 62 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 422 | 276 |
Result
Final score
422 – 276
Prediction correct · off by 126.3 pts
Match videos
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