FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

413.71 – 409.67

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

430 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.1 ±8.7

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 147.55Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 130.18Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 135.98Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636.1 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 151.74Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 148.23Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 109.7Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 272, 11, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 11, 1640

Auto

83.1 21%

Teleop

215.3 54%

Endgame

102.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 193, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1391, 193, 3314

Auto

68.6 17%

Teleop

245.2 60%

Endgame

91.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score413.7pts

Blue projected score409.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4
Score range: 361–463
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 859 vs event baseline 274.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

788.1Season APEX636.1

83.1Auto68.6

215.3Teleop245.2

102.5Endgame91.7

64Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	63
teleop	261	274
endgame	89	82
foul	0	10
total	430	429

Result

Final score

430 – 429

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Match videos

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