FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.42 – 277.14

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.9 ±9.3

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 59.2Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 84.39Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 152.83Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.8 ±9.8

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 60.48Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 74.11Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 142.55Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 293, 2607, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 293, 2607, 5895

Auto

74.6 25%

Teleop

152.2 52%

Endgame

67.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 486, 433, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 486, 433, 4285

Auto

27.0 10%

Teleop

185.6 67%

Endgame

65.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score296.4pts

Blue projected score277.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.3
Score range: 229–344
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 264.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.9Season APEX314.8

74.6Auto27

152.2Teleop185.6

67.5Endgame65.9

61Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	36
teleop	272	126
endgame	99	75
foul	10	5
total	445	242

Result

Final score

445 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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