FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.57 – 443.23

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.5 ±9.8

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 37.74Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 81.22Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 70.61Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529 ±9.8

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 171.26Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 51.97Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 220Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 303, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4575, 303, 555

Auto

34.5 19%

Teleop

113.1 61%

Endgame

38.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 193, 1672, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 193, 1672, 2539

Auto

44.2 10%

Teleop

268.4 61%

Endgame

127.3 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.67 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score189.6pts

Blue projected score443.2pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -253.7
Score range: 143–490
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 671 vs event baseline 263.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.5Season APEX529

34.5Auto44.2

113.1Teleop268.4

38.3Endgame127.3

79Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	88
teleop	142	232
endgame	54	108
foul	0	0
total	243	428

Result

Final score

243 – 428

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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