FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.53 – 225.37

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.5 ±9.8

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 159.93Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 42.26Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 65.34Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383 ±9.8

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 20.99Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 140.04Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 64.34Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1640, 10157, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1640, 10157, 2016

Auto

34.0 13%

Teleop

169.0 63%

Endgame

64.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 1391, 41

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2554, 1391, 41

Auto

44.7 20%

Teleop

102.0 45%

Endgame

77.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score267.5pts

Blue projected score225.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.2
Score range: 178–315
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 263.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.5Season APEX383

34Auto44.7

169Teleop102

64Endgame77.8

115Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	46
teleop	139	81
endgame	63	19
foul	0	0
total	268	146

Result

Final score

268 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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