FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

579.25 – 116.86

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

560 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 898.9 ±8.7

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 174.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 140.42Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 263.99Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±10.4

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 20.53Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -4.16Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 100.49Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8513, 11, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

579.3 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8513, 11, 316

Auto

110.6 19%

Teleop

339.9 60%

Endgame

118.5 21%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9015, 7110, 10070

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9015, 7110, 10070

Auto

36.5 33%

Teleop

29.8 27%

Endgame

45.3 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.89 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score579.3pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 462.4
Score range: 70–626
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 616 vs event baseline 263.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

898.9Season APEX213.5

110.6Auto36.5

339.9Teleop29.8

118.5Endgame45.3

90Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	144	24
teleop	254	26
endgame	162	6
foul	0	0
total	560	56

Result

Final score

560 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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