FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

347.8 – 309.53

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

409 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.2 ±9.3

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 177.26Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 42.92Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 127.62Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.2 ±8.7

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 129.31Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 61.72Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 118.5Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 9027, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 103, 9027, 1218

Auto

66.2 19%

Teleop

183.1 54%

Endgame

90.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 1807, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1676, 1807, 2590

Auto

81.0 27%

Teleop

163.2 54%

Endgame

60.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score347.8pts

Blue projected score309.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.3
Score range: 263–395
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 775 vs event baseline 262.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.2Season APEX650.2

66.2Auto81

183.1Teleop163.2

90.2Endgame60

85Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	96
teleop	207	142
endgame	145	128
foul	0	0
total	409	366

Result

Final score

409 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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