FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.01 – 172.95

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.2 ±10.4

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 51.59Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 49.83Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 30.59Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.2 ±10.4

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 47.76Rank 23Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 73.02Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 52.17Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 9416, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 427, 9416, 423

Auto

29.8 22%

Teleop

72.9 53%

Endgame

34.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 75, 7045, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 75, 7045, 223

Auto

37.9 22%

Teleop

93.9 55%

Endgame

39.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score132pts

Blue projected score173pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.9
Score range: 85–220
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 263.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.2Season APEX345.2

29.8Auto37.9

72.9Teleop93.9

34.3Endgame39.2

38Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	41
teleop	40	121
endgame	25	71
foul	0	0
total	76	233

Result

Final score

76 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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