FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.64 – 226.45

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 496 ±9.8

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX -7.85Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 173.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 65.39Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.9 ±9.8

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 107.57Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 70.55Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 48.33Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10918, 484, 25

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10918, 484, 25

Auto

46.0 20%

Teleop

129.8 57%

Endgame

52.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8706, 5181, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8706, 5181, 56

Auto

46.1 20%

Teleop

99.1 44%

Endgame

79.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230.6pts

Blue projected score226.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.2
Score range: 179–278
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 262.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

496Season APEX456.9

46Auto46.1

129.8Teleop99.1

52Endgame79.7

117Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	55
teleop	193	95
endgame	80	118
foul	5	0
total	338	268

Result

Final score

338 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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