FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.16 – 204.91

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.4 ±10.4

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 23.22Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 105.43Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 144.51Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.5 ±9.8

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 142.97Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 42Rank 65Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 19.94Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8117, 5401, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8117, 5401, 1089

Auto

52.0 20%

Teleop

141.8 53%

Endgame

72.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9094, 10949, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9094, 10949, 10584

Auto

37.0 18%

Teleop

102.0 51%

Endgame

62.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273.2pts

Blue projected score204.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.3
Score range: 158–320
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.4Season APEX405.5

52Auto37

141.8Teleop102

72.5Endgame62.2

120Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	24
teleop	90	33
endgame	85	95
foul	0	5
total	212	157

Result

Final score

212 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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