FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.56 – 234.6

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.6 ±9.8

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 179.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 45.95Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 91.86Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.9 ±9.8

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 36.14Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 85.73Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 112.73Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1403, 1923, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1403, 1923, 5438

Auto

66.5 21%

Teleop

196.0 61%

Endgame

60.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1712, 365, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1712, 365, 3314

Auto

43.8 19%

Teleop

128.4 55%

Endgame

59.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score317.6pts

Blue projected score234.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83
Score range: 187–366
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.6Season APEX454.9

66.5Auto43.8

196Teleop128.4

60.9Endgame59.2

98Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	30
teleop	235	36
endgame	66	38
foul	0	0
total	348	104

Result

Final score

348 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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