FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.55 – 229.47

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.1 ±9.3

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 119.1Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 152.79Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 64.66Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 386 ±9.8

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 52.27Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 37.88Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 139.32Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3637, 341, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3637, 341, 10993

Auto

56.7 17%

Teleop

203.0 61%

Endgame

73.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1168, 5113, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1168, 5113, 272

Auto

57.4 25%

Teleop

101.0 44%

Endgame

70.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score336.5pts

Blue projected score229.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.1
Score range: 181–385
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 264.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.1Season APEX386

56.7Auto57.4

203Teleop101

73.6Endgame70.3

124Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	62
teleop	167	141
endgame	76	17
foul	45	0
total	347	220

Result

Final score

347 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 10 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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