FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

271.63 – 147.1

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.3 ±10.4

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 152.06Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 71.25Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 48.32Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.4 ±9.3

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 131.91Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 28.9Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -13.71Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 293, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4285, 293, 10157

Auto

23.0 8%

Teleop

159.9 59%

Endgame

88.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 4575, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11, 4575, 7110

Auto

27.8 19%

Teleop

91.1 63%

Endgame

24.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score271.6pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.5
Score range: 99–320
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 440 vs event baseline 265.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.3Season APEX401.4

23Auto27.8

159.9Teleop91.1

88.6Endgame24.9

93Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	31
teleop	91	103
endgame	66	58
foul	0	45
total	203	237

Result

Final score

203 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 79.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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