FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

220.24 – 274.3

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 106.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.9 ±9.8

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 47.66Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 53.38Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 119.2Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.9 ±9.8

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 103.54Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 119.59Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 51.17Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 555, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2016, 555, 1391

Auto

32.2 15%

Teleop

141.9 65%

Endgame

44.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8706, 1218, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8706, 1218, 9416

Auto

65.7 24%

Teleop

135.8 50%

Endgame

68.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score220.2pts

Blue projected score274.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.1
Score range: 173–321
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 708 vs event baseline 263.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.9Season APEX456.9

32.2Auto65.7

141.9Teleop135.8

44.8Endgame68.4

93Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	76
teleop	231	147
endgame	84	103
foul	0	0
total	382	326

Result

Final score

382 – 326

Prediction missed · off by 106.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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