FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.61 – 303.28

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.2 ±9.8

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 116.43Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 78.61Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 151.57Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.2 ±9.3

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 137.83Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 75.57Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 89.88Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5401, 7045, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5401, 7045, 9094

Auto

42.3 12%

Teleop

200.1 59%

Endgame

99.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 25, 2607

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1676, 25, 2607

Auto

78.0 27%

Teleop

151.6 52%

Endgame

63.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score346.6pts

Blue projected score303.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 256–394
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 496 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.2Season APEX546.2

42.3Auto78

200.1Teleop151.6

99Endgame63.1

26Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	55
teleop	151	128
endgame	41	45
foul	0	5
total	263	233

Result

Final score

263 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 76.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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