FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129.55 – 168.81

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.1 ±9.8

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 55.49Rank 23Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX -1.47Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 75.53Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257 ±10.4

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 26.85Rank 38Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 79.75Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 62.21Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 75, 10918, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 75, 10918, 433

Auto

22.4 17%

Teleop

62.4 48%

Endgame

44.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8075, 41, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8075, 41, 1672

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

69.7 41%

Endgame

77.3 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score129.6pts

Blue projected score168.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 82–217
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 265.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.1Season APEX257

22.4Auto23.5

62.4Teleop69.7

44.7Endgame77.3

83Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	31
teleop	45	37
endgame	32	20
foul	5	0
total	96	88

Result

Final score

96 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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