FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

337.71 – 298.23

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 630 ±9.3

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 49.77Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 174.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 113.2Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.2 ±9.8

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 67.94Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 49.37Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 180.92Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 223, 484, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 223, 484, 3314

Auto

56.7 17%

Teleop

220.9 66%

Endgame

59.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6921, 1168, 103

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6921, 1168, 103

Auto

59.6 21%

Teleop

120.1 42%

Endgame

108.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score337.7pts

Blue projected score298.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.5
Score range: 250–386
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 265.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

630Season APEX466.2

56.7Auto59.6

220.9Teleop120.1

59.5Endgame108.2

93Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	59
teleop	196	151
endgame	73	121
foul	0	0
total	345	331

Result

Final score

345 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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