FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

252.06 – 406.45

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

266 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.9 ±9.8

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 152.8Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 44.91Rank 65Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 54.35Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 651.1 ±9.3

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 179.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 186.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 40.13Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 341, 10949, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 341, 10949, 10979

Auto

34.3 14%

Teleop

143.1 58%

Endgame

71.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8513, 1403, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8513, 1403, 9027

Auto

88.1 22%

Teleop

238.7 59%

Endgame

80.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score252.1pts

Blue projected score406.5pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.4
Score range: 204–454
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 265.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.9Season APEX651.1

34.3Auto88.1

143.1Teleop238.7

71.2Endgame80.6

84Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	108
teleop	121	182
endgame	83	74
foul	15	10
total	266	374

Result

Final score

266 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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