FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.49 – 239.91

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 290

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.3

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 65.96Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 120.32Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 75.21Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.5 ±10.4

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 26.76Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 71.51Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 141.64Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 222, 3637, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 222, 3637, 5181

Auto

58.4 23%

Teleop

148.0 59%

Endgame

45.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1712, 303, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1712, 303, 1089

Auto

58.5 25%

Teleop

124.6 53%

Endgame

53.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score261.5pts

Blue projected score239.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.6
Score range: 192–309
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 531 vs event baseline 265.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX428.5

58.4Auto58.5

148Teleop124.6

45.7Endgame53.8

43Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	53
teleop	121	136
endgame	64	76
foul	5	25
total	241	290

Result

Final score

241 – 290

Prediction missed · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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