FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.07 – 143.07

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 26 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.6 ±9.8

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX -Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX -Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX -Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.9 ±9.8

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX -Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX -Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1923, 11, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1923, 11, 222

Auto

42.9 30%

Teleop

71.5 50%

Endgame

28.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2016, 9094, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2016, 9094, 1168

Auto

42.9 30%

Teleop

71.5 50%

Endgame

28.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score143.1pts

Blue projected score143.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 91–195
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 286.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.6Season APEX418.9

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	21
teleop	71	78
endgame	17	73
foul	0	0
total	120	172

Result

Final score

120 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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