FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.1 – 326.01

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±9.8

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 120.1Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 20.01Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 84.99Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.1 ±9.8

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 31.86Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 252.3Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 41.85Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 8117, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2590, 8117, 365

Auto

38.1 17%

Teleop

99.3 44%

Endgame

88.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5113, 316, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

326 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5113, 316, 427

Auto

57.6 18%

Teleop

176.2 54%

Endgame

93.2 29%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score225.1pts

Blue projected score326pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.9
Score range: 177–374
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 643 vs event baseline 264.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.9Season APEX470.1

38.1Auto57.6

99.3Teleop176.2

88Endgame93.2

117Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	86
teleop	106	191
endgame	62	131
foul	0	0
total	235	408

Result

Final score

235 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 45.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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