FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.04 – 267.99

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.4 ±8.7

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 12.7Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 199.31Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 107.03Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.6 ±10.4

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 78.18Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 102.92Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 86.89Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 2539, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4575, 2539, 1218

Auto

31.0 10%

Teleop

221.6 70%

Endgame

63.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 25, 8706, 41

/ 100 compat

Projected

268 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 25, 8706, 41

Auto

56.1 22%

Teleop

85.6 33%

Endgame

118.0 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score319pts

Blue projected score268pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.1
Score range: 221–366
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 263.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.4Season APEX360.6

31Auto56.1

221.6Teleop85.6

63.1Endgame118

112Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	56
teleop	235	100
endgame	114	82
foul	0	0
total	422	238

Result

Final score

422 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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