FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.71 – 65.7

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 103.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.8 ±9.8

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 81.64Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 121.53Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 35.54Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.1 ±10.4

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 37.38Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX -13.48Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 41.8Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5438, 1676, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5438, 1676, 486

Auto

63.3 27%

Teleop

113.6 48%

Endgame

59.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2016, 10918, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2016, 10918, 9416

Auto

17.0 24%

Teleop

37.9 53%

Endgame

16.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score238.7pts

Blue projected score65.7pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173
Score range: 19–286
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 263.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.8Season APEX234.1

63.3Auto17

113.6Teleop37.9

59.1Endgame16.1

116Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	36
teleop	251	80
endgame	53	24
foul	0	0
total	371	140

Result

Final score

371 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 103.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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