FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

268.69 – 362.39

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 98.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339 ±10.4

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 54.62Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 161.33Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 52.74Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 790 ±8.7

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 110.65Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 93.51Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 158.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 56, 4285, 9027

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 56, 4285, 9027

Auto

33.8 12%

Teleop

147.9 55%

Endgame

89.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 3314, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1391, 3314, 8513

Auto

77.7 22%

Teleop

205.5 57%

Endgame

75.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score268.7pts

Blue projected score362.4pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.7
Score range: 222–409
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 690 vs event baseline 262.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339Season APEX790

33.8Auto77.7

147.9Teleop205.5

89Endgame75

87Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	100
teleop	131	310
endgame	34	80
foul	0	0
total	200	490

Result

Final score

200 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 98.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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