FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.62 – 290.63

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.7 ±9.8

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 44.85Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 29Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 43.77Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543 ±9.8

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 106.93Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 112.11Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 71.59Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10157, 708, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10157, 708, 1168

Auto

24.5 21%

Teleop

57.5 50%

Endgame

32.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 2590, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5401, 2590, 303

Auto

54.7 19%

Teleop

145.9 51%

Endgame

83.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score117.6pts

Blue projected score290.6pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -173
Score range: 71–338
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 553 vs event baseline 261.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.7Season APEX543

24.5Auto54.7

57.5Teleop145.9

32.1Endgame83.8

112Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	54
teleop	110	214
endgame	53	89
foul	0	0
total	196	357

Result

Final score

196 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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