FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.15 – 215.79

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 42.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.7 ±9.8

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 174.79Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 76.56Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 36.8Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.6 ±9.8

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 27.91Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 177.55Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 10.33Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1640, 293, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1640, 293, 1712

Auto

49.5 18%

Teleop

143.1 51%

Endgame

86.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8117, 103, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8117, 103, 9015

Auto

36.6 18%

Teleop

95.6 47%

Endgame

71.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score288.2pts

Blue projected score215.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.4
Score range: 169–335
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 261.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.7Season APEX411.6

49.5Auto36.6

143.1Teleop95.6

86.2Endgame71.3

71Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	37
teleop	97	76
endgame	43	117
foul	10	0
total	217	230

Result

Final score

217 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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