FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.91 – 91.56

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 112.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±10.4

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 26Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 42.82Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 148.09Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±10.4

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 33.8Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 15.04Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 42.72Rank 65Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 223, 10979, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 223, 10979, 193

Auto

21.0 10%

Teleop

124.1 57%

Endgame

71.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1923, 5113, 10949

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1923, 5113, 10949

Auto

33.2 37%

Teleop

44.1 50%

Endgame

11.3 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score216.9pts

Blue projected score91.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.4
Score range: 45–264
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 261.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.7Season APEX234.8

21Auto33.2

124.1Teleop44.1

71.3Endgame11.3

96Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	12
teleop	232	131
endgame	58	53
foul	0	0
total	337	196

Result

Final score

337 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 112.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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