FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.04 – 287.28

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 139.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.5 ±9.3

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 90.59Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 134.58Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 110.87Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430 ±9.8

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 95.43Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 58.78Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 133.07Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10070, 5895, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

336 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10070, 5895, 11

Auto

79.7 24%

Teleop

198.6 60%

Endgame

52.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6921, 427, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6921, 427, 3637

Auto

49.1 18%

Teleop

129.3 46%

Endgame

101.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score336pts

Blue projected score287.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 240–383
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 689 vs event baseline 258.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.5Season APEX430

79.7Auto49.1

198.6Teleop129.3

52.9Endgame101.3

24Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	42
teleop	332	86
endgame	81	53
foul	0	0
total	508	181

Result

Final score

508 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 139.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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