FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.48 – 259.83

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.3 ±9.8

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 140.12Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 86.59Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 72.77Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.1 ±9.8

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 148.33Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 32.07Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 79.43Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 272, 365, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 272, 365, 7045

Auto

57.4 19%

Teleop

141.3 47%

Endgame

99.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1089, 2554, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1089, 2554, 433

Auto

52.8 21%

Teleop

155.8 61%

Endgame

48.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.5pts

Blue projected score259.8pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.7
Score range: 214–345
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 630 vs event baseline 257.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.3Season APEX288.1

57.4Auto52.8

141.3Teleop155.8

99.9Endgame48.8

31Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	32
teleop	222	144
endgame	70	86
foul	0	10
total	358	272

Result

Final score

358 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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