FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.64 – 384.98

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 123.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.9 ±9.8

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -30Rank 63Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 88.24Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 135.4Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 563.3 ±9.3

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 95.23Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 142.21Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 147.54Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7110, 5438, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7110, 5438, 341

Auto

35.6 19%

Teleop

84.5 45%

Endgame

69.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 222, 1218, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

385 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 222, 1218, 1676

Auto

104.3 27%

Teleop

206.2 54%

Endgame

73.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score193.6pts

Blue projected score385pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.3
Score range: 148–431
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 257.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.9Season APEX563.3

35.6Auto104.3

84.5Teleop206.2

69.4Endgame73.8

140Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	51
teleop	129	135
endgame	101	21
foul	0	15
total	277	222

Result

Final score

277 – 222

Prediction missed · off by 123.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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