Qualification · Qualification 64
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
143.01 – 303.03
12%88%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
307 – 239
Prediction missed · off by 114 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 72.58Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 23.81Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 46.62Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 45.21Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 89.99Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 167.83Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3314, 1168, 303
46
/ 100 compatProjected
143 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3314, 1168, 303
Auto
52.8 37%
Teleop
57.8 40%
Endgame
33.2 23%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8117, 2607, 8513
75
/ 100 compatProjected
303 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8117, 2607, 8513
Auto
63.0 21%
Teleop
175.1 58%
Endgame
65.0 21%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.26
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score143pts
Blue projected score303pts
Red win probability12%
Event bonus sample294alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 15%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -160
- Score range
- 97–349
- Upset likelihood
- 12%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
498.8Season APEX584.9
52.8Auto63
57.8Teleop175.1
33.2Endgame65
97Consistency125
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 73 |
| teleop | 154 | 105 |
| endgame | 74 | 56 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 307 | 239 |
Result
Final score
307 – 239
Prediction missed · off by 114 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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