FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.35 – 263.38

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.5 ±9.8

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 35.6Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 185.44Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 92.31Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.5 ±10.4

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 45.94Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 50.5Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 166.94Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 223, 1640, 25

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 223, 1640, 25

Auto

41.0 13%

Teleop

194.5 63%

Endgame

75.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1712, 2016, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1712, 2016, 4285

Auto

18.7 7%

Teleop

181.2 67%

Endgame

70.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score313.4pts

Blue projected score263.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50
Score range: 217–359
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 255.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.5Season APEX334.5

41Auto18.7

194.5Teleop181.2

75.4Endgame70.1

134Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	23
teleop	118	135
endgame	74	68
foul	25	0
total	274	226

Result

Final score

274 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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