FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.85 – 207.82

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.6 ±10.4

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 23.38Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 33.29Rank 65Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 46.18Rank 23Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±10.4

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 53.07Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 81.52Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 73.23Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 423, 10949, 75

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 423, 10949, 75

Auto

22.6 22%

Teleop

60.9 60%

Endgame

18.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 56, 293, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 56, 293, 10993

Auto

25.5 12%

Teleop

116.8 57%

Endgame

64.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score102.9pts

Blue projected score207.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105
Score range: 57–254
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 257.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.6Season APEX323.9

22.6Auto25.5

60.9Teleop116.8

18.1Endgame64.2

61Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	48
teleop	47	104
endgame	50	57
foul	0	0
total	121	209

Result

Final score

121 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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