FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.47 – 348.37

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 129 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.5 ±9.8

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 29.26Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 27.84Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 45.37Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.6 ±9.8

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 170.03Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 42.82Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 135.52Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1672, 9027, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1672, 9027, 5181

Auto

8.1 8%

Teleop

43.0 43%

Endgame

48.4 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 1923, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3637, 1923, 8706

Auto

69.6 20%

Teleop

210.7 60%

Endgame

71.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score102.5pts

Blue projected score348.4pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -245.9
Score range: 56–394
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 257.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.5Season APEX507.6

8.1Auto69.6

43Teleop210.7

48.4Endgame71.5

84Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	61
teleop	93	79
endgame	75	50
foul	10	25
total	227	215

Result

Final score

227 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 129 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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