FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.61 – 198.92

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 446

Prediction missed · off by 128.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.6 ±9.8

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 42.25Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 155.81Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 86.55Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.6 ±9.8

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 66.6Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 111.17Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 21.15Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 193, 41

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 708, 193, 41

Auto

29.2 10%

Teleop

159.9 57%

Endgame

91.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 1089, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11, 1089, 427

Auto

55.4 30%

Teleop

101.8 54%

Endgame

30.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.6pts

Blue projected score198.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.7
Score range: 153–331
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 720 vs event baseline 257.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.6Season APEX493.6

29.2Auto55.4

159.9Teleop101.8

91.5Endgame30

51Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	60
teleop	116	271
endgame	113	115
foul	0	0
total	274	446

Result

Final score

274 – 446

Prediction missed · off by 128.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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