FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.88 – 241.22

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 463

Prediction correct · off by 145.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±9.8

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 107.92Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 38.87Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 29.09Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.6 ±9.3

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -29.83Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 112.34Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 158.71Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10070, 4575, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10070, 4575, 5113

Auto

49.9 29%

Teleop

115.5 66%

Endgame

8.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10584, 272, 103

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10584, 272, 103

Auto

37.0 16%

Teleop

105.6 45%

Endgame

92.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score175.9pts

Blue projected score241.2pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.3
Score range: 130–287
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 257.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.7Season APEX606.6

49.9Auto37

115.5Teleop105.6

8.4Endgame92.6

66Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	109
teleop	55	247
endgame	30	92
foul	0	15
total	106	463

Result

Final score

106 – 463

Prediction correct · off by 145.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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