FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.75 – 386.99

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±9.8

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 7.51Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 139.64Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 47.6Rank 42Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.1 ±9.8

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 234.5Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 54.68Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 97.81Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10918, 9094, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10918, 9094, 10157

Auto

26.4 13%

Teleop

112.4 57%

Endgame

58.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 316, 555, 6921

/ 100 compat

Projected

387 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 316, 555, 6921

Auto

54.1 14%

Teleop

207.8 54%

Endgame

121.6 32%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194.7pts

Blue projected score387pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -192.2
Score range: 149–433
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 511 vs event baseline 257.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX558.1

26.4Auto54.1

112.4Teleop207.8

58.9Endgame121.6

91Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	85
teleop	89	157
endgame	87	72
foul	0	5
total	192	319

Result

Final score

192 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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