FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.22 – 177.61

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.2 ±9.8

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 16.18Rank 50Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 37.33Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 103.71Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 467 ±9.8

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 39.46Rank 66Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 32.23Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 105.92Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9015, 9416, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9015, 9416, 433

Auto

17.8 12%

Teleop

83.9 55%

Endgame

50.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 10979, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2554, 10979, 2590

Auto

51.4 29%

Teleop

58.4 34%

Endgame

64.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score177.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 110–225
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 259.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.2Season APEX467

17.8Auto51.4

83.9Teleop58.4

50.7Endgame64.5

94Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	29
teleop	46	88
endgame	33	40
foul	5	5
total	109	162

Result

Final score

109 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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