FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.38 – 203.79

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.5 ±10.4

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 21.41Rank 35Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 168.62Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 43.35Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±10.4

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 52.42Rank 49Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 94.65Rank 20Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 56.72Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1168, 4285, 8117

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1168, 4285, 8117

Auto

34.2 15%

Teleop

105.2 45%

Endgame

94.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9027, 5438, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9027, 5438, 423

Auto

22.9 11%

Teleop

119.6 59%

Endgame

61.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score233.4pts

Blue projected score203.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.6
Score range: 156–281
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 264.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.5Season APEX311.8

34.2Auto22.9

105.2Teleop119.6

94.8Endgame61.8

155Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	22
teleop	121	35
endgame	54	30
foul	0	0
total	220	87

Result

Final score

220 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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