FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.75 – 280.96

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

460 – 425

Prediction correct · off by 115.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 534.6 ±9.8

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 140.28Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 153.96Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 78.51Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.5 ±9.3

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 120.24Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 11.16Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 149.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5895, 193, 25

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5895, 193, 25

Auto

61.7 17%

Teleop

200.5 54%

Endgame

106.1 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 1672, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

281 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1391, 1672, 1403

Auto

61.8 22%

Teleop

154.2 56%

Endgame

61.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score372.8pts

Blue projected score281pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.8
Score range: 234–420
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 885 vs event baseline 261.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

534.6Season APEX587.5

61.7Auto61.8

200.5Teleop154.2

106.1Endgame61.6

105Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	72
teleop	281	215
endgame	83	133
foul	0	5
total	460	425

Result

Final score

460 – 425

Prediction correct · off by 115.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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