FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

218.91 – 182.02

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 166 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529 ±9.3

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 19.31Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 71.92Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 127.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.6 ±10.4

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 75.08Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX -4.01Rank 61Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 110.95Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 708, 10070, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 708, 10070, 8513

Auto

46.2 21%

Teleop

108.4 49%

Endgame

67.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 5113, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

182 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7045, 5113, 8706

Auto

43.4 24%

Teleop

113.1 62%

Endgame

26.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score218.9pts

Blue projected score182pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 135–266
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 733 vs event baseline 259.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529Season APEX337.6

46.2Auto43.4

108.4Teleop113.1

67.2Endgame26.6

92Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	54
teleop	281	142
endgame	35	116
foul	10	0
total	421	312

Result

Final score

421 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 166 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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