FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.19 – 293.13

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.3 ±10.4

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX -2.37Rank 55Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 103.83Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 67.73Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477 ±9.8

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 109.1Rank 31Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 126.34Rank 14Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 57.69Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10584, 41, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10584, 41, 555

Auto

17.4 10%

Teleop

95.0 57%

Endgame

55.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 293, 272, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 293, 272, 7587

Auto

42.5 15%

Teleop

126.0 44%

Endgame

116.9 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score169.2pts

Blue projected score293.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.9
Score range: 122–340
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 261.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.3Season APEX477

17.4Auto42.5

95Teleop126

55Endgame116.9

129Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	54
teleop	29	95
endgame	29	45
foul	0	0
total	81	194

Result

Final score

81 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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