FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.65 – 208.92

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.8 ±9.8

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 123.42Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 55.98Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 115.25Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.1 ±10.4

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 84.98Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 80.57Rank 46Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 43.37Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 555, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2590, 555, 8706

Auto

65.0 22%

Teleop

136.1 46%

Endgame

92.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 365, 223, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 365, 223, 486

Auto

27.6 13%

Teleop

122.7 58%

Endgame

59.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score294.7pts

Blue projected score208.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.7
Score range: 159–345
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 277.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.8Season APEX294.1

65Auto27.6

136.1Teleop122.7

92.9Endgame59.6

128Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	8
teleop	239	111
endgame	79	46
foul	5	0
total	371	165

Result

Final score

371 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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