FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.92 – 336.36

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

343 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 71.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.4 ±9.3

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 21.99Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 113.51Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 234.42Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 798.5 ±8.7

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 56.38Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 165.17Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 114.81Rank 6Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10918, 2590, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10918, 2590, 316

Auto

92.5 25%

Teleop

208.2 57%

Endgame

66.2 18%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 1640, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3314, 1640, 341

Auto

67.1 20%

Teleop

163.7 49%

Endgame

102.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score369.9pts

Blue projected score336.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 289–417
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 796 vs event baseline 258.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.4Season APEX798.5

92.5Auto67.1

208.2Teleop163.7

66.2Endgame102.9

127Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	72
teleop	153	297
endgame	137	79
foul	0	5
total	343	453

Result

Final score

343 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 71.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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