FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.34 – 251.73

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.4 ±10.4

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 48.66Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 49.67Rank 60Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 92.01Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.5 ±9.3

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 56.31Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 146.92Rank 11Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 48.5Rank 25Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 427, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10979, 427, 1712

Auto

33.7 18%

Teleop

90.9 48%

Endgame

66.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 9094, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1807, 9094, 486

Auto

25.2 10%

Teleop

147.6 58%

Endgame

80.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score190.3pts

Blue projected score251.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.4
Score range: 143–299
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 260.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.4Season APEX534.5

33.7Auto25.2

90.9Teleop147.6

66.6Endgame80.3

45Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	55
teleop	18	165
endgame	17	68
foul	0	0
total	63	288

Result

Final score

63 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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