FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.66 – 179.99

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 439

Prediction missed · off by 147.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.7 ±9.8

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 42.12Rank 64Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 112.08Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 40.46Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.6 ±9.8

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 107.95Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 78.24Rank 15Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX -6.2Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 6921, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9416, 6921, 4575

Auto

56.1 30%

Teleop

77.6 41%

Endgame

55.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1218, 5401, 1923

/ 100 compat

Projected

180 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1218, 5401, 1923

Auto

21.3 12%

Teleop

127.7 73%

Endgame

26.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194.7pts

Blue projected score180pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 133–242
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 597 vs event baseline 259.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.7Season APEX476.6

56.1Auto21.3

77.6Teleop127.7

55.6Endgame26.3

61Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	76
teleop	82	284
endgame	64	79
foul	0	0
total	158	439

Result

Final score

158 – 439

Prediction missed · off by 147.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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