FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.04 – 288.21

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 625 ±8.7

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 141.59Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 69.96Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 80.49Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.5 ±9.3

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 42.48Rank 43Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 64.82Rank 28Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 180.91Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 433, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

292 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 103, 433, 11

Auto

57.2 20%

Teleop

150.9 52%

Endgame

79.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 10993, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5181, 10993, 2539

Auto

21.4 7%

Teleop

193.5 66%

Endgame

76.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292pts

Blue projected score288.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.8
Score range: 242–338
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 257.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

625Season APEX586.5

57.2Auto21.4

150.9Teleop193.5

79.6Endgame76.9

146Consistency195

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	17
teleop	233	229
endgame	59	87
foul	25	0
total	348	333

Result

Final score

348 – 333

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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