FIRST Mid-Atlantic District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.84 – 178.13

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 143.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±10.4

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 12.63Rank 59Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 49.66Rank 62Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 42.55Rank 44Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.6 ±9.8

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 20.56Rank 32Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 28.69Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 128.88Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1672, 8117, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1672, 8117, 2016

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

60.3 60%

Endgame

39.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 10070, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7045, 10070, 1403

Auto

59.5 32%

Teleop

106.9 58%

Endgame

17.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score104.8pts

Blue projected score178.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample294alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.3
Score range: 58–225
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 258.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.3Season APEX485.6

0Auto59.5

60.3Teleop106.9

39.5Endgame17.5

170Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	89
teleop	94	233
endgame	44	87
foul	0	0
total	161	409

Result

Final score

161 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 143.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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